South African Elections 2024: Analyzing Coalition Scenarios through Game Theory
- Simon A
- Jun 11, 2024
- 6 min read
The 2024 South African elections have resulted in a fragmented political landscape, with no party securing an outright majority. This has necessitated coalition formations to ensure stable governance. Let's analyse the potential coalition scenarios using game theory and determine the best outcome for South Africa.
Election Results Recap:
ANC (African National Congress): 159 seats, 39.76%
DA (Democratic Alliance): 87 seats, 21.79%
MK (MK Veterans Association, led by Jacob Zuma): 58 seats, 14.36%
EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters): 39 seats, 9.68%
IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party): 17 seats, 4.09%
PA (Patriotic Alliance): 9 seats, 2.12%
Coalition Scenarios and Their Potential Outcomes
1. ANC and MK Coalition
Total Seats: 217 (majority)
Benefits to ANC:
Secures a majority, ensuring control over parliament.
Stabilises internal party dynamics by aligning with Zuma’s faction.
Benefits to South Africa:
Ensures political stability.
Risks continuation of existing governance issues if no significant reforms are implemented.
2. ANC and EFF Coalition
Total Seats: 198 (close to majority, needs support from smaller parties)
Benefits to ANC:
Gains support for potentially radical economic reforms.
Can negotiate with smaller parties like IFP or PA for majority.
Benefits to South Africa:
Potential for significant economic reforms.
Risk of economic instability due to radical policies.
3. ANC, EFF, and MK Coalition
Total Seats: 256 (strong majority)
Benefits to ANC:
Strong majority, reducing reliance on smaller parties.
Balances radical reforms with internal party stability.
Benefits to South Africa:
Balanced approach to economic and social reforms.
Greater political stability with a strong majority.
4. DA, EFF, and IFP Coalition
Total Seats: 143 (needs more support)
Benefits to DA:
Gains influence by leading a coalition government.
Can negotiate with other smaller parties for majority.
Benefits to South Africa:
Potential for new policies and reforms, breaking from ANC’s long rule.
Risk of instability due to divergent policy priorities among coalition members.
5. DA and Smaller Parties Coalition
Total Seats: 113 (needs more support)
Benefits to DA:
Gains influence by forming a coalition with smaller parties.
Needs further negotiation to secure a majority.
Benefits to South Africa:
Potential for moderate reforms and stability.
Limited power without more seats.
6. ANC, DA, and IFP Coalition
Total Seats: 263 (strong majority)
Benefits to ANC:
Secures a strong majority, reducing reliance on smaller parties.
Broadens political base by including DA and IFP.
Benefits to South Africa:
Ensures a stable government with a strong majority.
Combines ANC’s experience with DA’s push for good governance and IFP’s regional influence, potentially leading to balanced and comprehensive policies.
Potential for economic and social reforms addressing both governance and regional issues.
Visualisation of Coalition Scenarios
Below is a matrix visualisation of the different coalition scenarios and their respective payoffs for the main political parties in the South African 2024 elections:
Interpretation of the Payoffs
ANC + MK: Provides a stable majority with moderate payoffs, ensuring control over parliament and internal stability.
ANC + EFF: Offers potential radical reforms but close to a majority, requiring additional support.
ANC + EFF + MK: Strong majority with balanced radical and moderate reforms, reducing instability.
DA + EFF + IFP: Needs more seats to form a majority, combining reformist and regional priorities.
DA + Small Parties: Limited power without more seats, focusing on moderate reforms.
ANC + DA + IFP: Best scenario with a strong majority, stable governance, and balanced policies.
Quantifying the points for each party in the coalition scenarios involves assessing the potential benefits and drawbacks of each coalition based on several key factors. These factors can include political stability, policy influence, governance effectiveness, and potential for economic and social reforms. Here’s a detailed approach on how the points can be quantified:
Factors to Consider
Political Stability: The ability of the coalition to maintain a stable government without frequent disruptions or defection.
Policy Influence: The degree to which each party can implement its policies and influence the government's agenda.
Governance Effectiveness: The capacity of the coalition to govern effectively, including passing legislation and managing the economy.
Economic and Social Reforms: The potential for the coalition to introduce and implement reforms that benefit the country economically and socially.
Quantifying Points
1. Political Stability
Strong majority with little risk of defection: +3 points
Moderate majority with some risk of defection: +2 points
Weak majority with high risk of defection: +1 point
No majority: 0 points
2. Policy Influence
High policy influence: +3 points
Moderate policy influence: +2 points
Low policy influence: +1 point
No influence: 0 points
3. Governance Effectiveness
Highly effective governance: +3 points
Moderately effective governance: +2 points
Less effective governance: +1 point
Ineffective governance: 0 points
4. Economic and Social Reforms
High potential for beneficial reforms: +3 points
Moderate potential for beneficial reforms: +2 points
Low potential for beneficial reforms: +1 point
No potential for beneficial reforms: 0 points
Applying the Criteria to Coalition Scenarios
1. ANC and MK Coalition
Political Stability: +3 (strong majority)
Policy Influence: +2 (aligned but limited reform potential)
Governance Effectiveness: +2 (stability within ANC, moderate governance)
Economic and Social Reforms: +1 (limited reform potential)
Total: 3 + 2 + 2 + 1 = 8 points
2. ANC and EFF Coalition
Political Stability: +2 (close to majority, needs more support)
Policy Influence: +3 (high influence from EFF on reforms)
Governance Effectiveness: +1 (potential conflicts, less effective)
Economic and Social Reforms: +2 (significant but risky reforms)
Total: 2 + 3 + 1 + 2 = 8 points
3. ANC, EFF, and MK Coalition
Political Stability: +3 (strong majority)
Policy Influence: +3 (balanced influence among parties)
Governance Effectiveness: +3 (effective due to strong majority)
Economic and Social Reforms: +3 (high potential for balanced reforms)
Total: 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 12 points
4. DA, EFF, and IFP Coalition
Political Stability: +1 (needs more seats for majority)
Policy Influence: +2 (moderate influence from EFF and IFP)
Governance Effectiveness: +1 (potential conflicts, less effective)
Economic and Social Reforms: +2 (potential but limited by lack of majority)
Total: 1 + 2 + 1 + 2 = 6 points
5. DA and Smaller Parties Coalition
Political Stability: +1 (needs more seats for majority)
Policy Influence: +1 (limited influence from smaller parties)
Governance Effectiveness: +1 (less effective without majority)
Economic and Social Reforms: +1 (limited potential)
Total: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 4 points
6. ANC, DA, and IFP Coalition
Political Stability: +3 (strong majority)
Policy Influence: +3 (balanced influence among parties)
Governance Effectiveness: +3 (highly effective due to strong majority)
Economic and Social Reforms: +3 (high potential for beneficial reforms)
Total: 3 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 12 points
Conclusion
From the quantified points, the ANC, DA, and IFP coalition and the ANC, EFF, and MK coalition both score the highest, with 12 points each. However, considering the balanced approach and broader appeal, the ANC, DA, and IFP coalition is likely the best scenario for South Africa, ensuring stability, balanced policies, and comprehensive reforms.
Visualisation
Below is the matrix visualisation showing the different coalition scenarios and their quantified points:
Coalition Scenario | Political Stability | Policy Influence | Governance Effectiveness | Economic and Social Reforms | Total Points | |
ANC + MK | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | |
ANC + EFF | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
ANC + EFF + MK | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
DA + EFF + IFP | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
DA + Small Parties | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
ANC + DA + IFP | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
Best Scenario: ANC + DA + IFP
This coalition scenario offers the highest payoffs for all involved parties:
ANC: 5 (maintaining power and stability)
DA: 4 (influencing governance and reforms)
IFP: 3 (regional influence and stability)
Game Theory Justification
Cooperative Gains: Maximises collective payoffs by ensuring a strong majority and stable governance.
Minimised Defection Risk: Reduces the risk of defection due to balanced policy approaches and comprehensive reforms.
Long-term Stability: Provides a stable political environment, promoting economic growth and social stability.
Why the ANC + DA + IFP Coalition Might Be Equally or More Advantageous
Broader Appeal and Legitimacy
The coalition with DA and IFP brings in a broader spectrum of voter support and legitimacy, appealing to both urban and regional voters.
DA’s focus on good governance and anti-corruption aligns with international expectations, potentially improving foreign investment and economic stability.
Balanced Policy Approach
While EFF’s radical reforms can be beneficial, they also carry the risk of economic instability. DA’s moderate reforms can provide a more balanced approach, ensuring sustainable growth.
IFP’s regional influence ensures that the coalition addresses regional disparities, promoting national unity.
Governance Experience
DA has a track record of governance, especially in regions like the Western Cape. Combining this with ANC’s national experience can lead to highly effective governance.
This coalition can leverage DA’s administrative strengths and ANC’s policy frameworks to implement comprehensive and effective reforms.
Conclusion
From a game theory perspective, the ANC, DA, and IFP coalition is the best scenario for South Africa. It ensures stability, balanced policies, and economic growth, ultimately benefiting the country as a whole.
